NFL Catch-Up

Welcome to another episode of NFL Catch Up, a recap of the opinions and analysis from national experts across the NFL podcasting landscape -- delivering you a weekly catch-up of the most interesting takes from around the NFL. We drop NFL Catch-Up every Friday morning all year long across the major podcast platforms. You can find us on X at nfl underscore catch up. We're also available on YouTube and on the web at nflcatchup.com.

Let's dive right into this week's hot topics, starting with the fascinating matchup between the Las Vegas Raiders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Both of these teams feature pass funnel defenses, which means we're likely to see an aerial shootout. The Buccaneers have faced a sixty four percent neutral pass rate this season, the highest in the NFL. Meanwhile, ten out of twelve teams to face the Raiders have been over their expected pass rate.

This sets up an intriguing scenario for both quarterbacks. Baker Mayfield of the Buccaneers and Aidan O'Connell of the Raiders should have plenty of time in the pocket, as both teams have struggled to generate consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The Raiders sport one of the NFL's lowest pressure rates, while the Buccaneers' pass rush is middling at best.

Looking at the receiving options, this game could be a goldmine for fantasy owners. For the Raiders, tight end Brock Bowers and wide receiver Jakobi Meyers combined for sixteen catches on twenty five targets last week against the Chiefs. That's the kind of volume that wins fantasy matchups. On the Buccaneers' side, keep an eye on Mike Evans and Cade Otton as primary beneficiaries of a pass-heavy attack.

An interesting wrinkle to watch is the potential involvement of Sterling Shepard for the Buccaneers. Last week, Shepard ran a route on twenty eight of the Bucs' thirty three dropbacks, operating from the slot on sixty six percent of his routes. Against a pass-funnel defense like the Raiders, Shepard could see some sneaky production.

Moving on to our next segment, let's talk about the Jacksonville Jaguars versus Tennessee Titans matchup. Once again, we're looking at two pass funnel defenses squaring off. The Titans are the league's seventh most pronounced pass funnel, while the Jaguars are fifth. What's particularly notable is that Jacksonville is being carved up for what is by far and away the NFL's highest pass EPA.

For the Titans, this presents an opportunity to let quarterback Will Levis air it out. Despite a run-heavy approach in recent weeks, the Titans have maintained a sixty two percent dropback rate this season. This could make Levis an interesting streaming option in one-quarterback leagues and a locked-in starter in superflex formats.

The primary beneficiary for the Titans in this matchup should be wide receiver Calvin Ridley. Ridley leads the NFL in air yards and has a twenty nine percent target share since Week Eight. Against a struggling Jaguars secondary, Ridley could be in for a monster performance.

On the Jaguars' side, we're looking at a potential shootout with Mac Jones at the helm, filling in for the concussed Trevor Lawrence. This could lead to increased targets for Brian Thomas and Evan Engram. Thomas, in particular, is due for a bounce-back after a cold streak last week against the Texans, where he only accumulated two hundred and five air yards.

Shifting gears to a completely different style of matchup, let's examine the Chicago Bears versus San Francisco Forty Niners game. The Forty Niners have established themselves as the NFL's most pronounced run funnel defense. Teams are passing the ball at a fifty four percent clip in neutral situations against the Niners, which is significantly lower than league average.

This trend could put a halt to the Bears' recent pass-heavy approach. Since firing offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, the Bears have dropped back on seventy one percent of their offensive snaps, the third-highest rate in the league over that three-week span. However, against the Forty Niners, we might see a more balanced attack.

This shift in strategy could mean a big day for Bears running back D'Andre Swift. Swift was the only Chicago running back to log a rushing attempt last week against Detroit, carrying the ball eleven times. He also ran a pass route on half of Caleb Williams' dropbacks. Against a Forty Niners defense that's giving up the tenth highest rate of yards after contact per rush, Swift could be in for a twenty-plus touch game.

Now, let's turn our attention to the Buffalo Bills versus Los Angeles Rams matchup. The Rams have emerged as a heavy run funnel defense since Halloween. Six of the past seven teams to face off against LA have been well below their expected pass rate. This presents an opportunity for the Bills to establish their ground game.

Last week, in snowy conditions against the Forty Niners, the Bills were eleven percent below their expected pass rate. Entering this matchup as three-and-a-half-point road favorites, we can expect Buffalo to maintain a balanced or even run-first approach against the Rams.

This game script should open up plenty of opportunities for Bills running back James Cook. It's also worth keeping an eye on Ray Davis, who over the past two games has sixteen rushes to Cook's twenty three, including some work inside the ten-yard line. With six teams on bye this week, Davis could be a sneaky start in deeper leagues.

Such a run-heavy approach from the Bills could create target volume issues for their pass-catchers. The last time Buffalo went run-heavy was in Week Six against the Jets, when only one Buffalo pass catcher - Dalton Kincaid - saw more than four targets from Josh Allen.

Let's switch gears and discuss some potential coaching changes on the horizon. UCLA made waves by parting ways with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy after just one season. This move shows both an admission of making the wrong hire and a willingness to quickly pivot when things aren't working.

Bieniemy's tenure at UCLA was marked by struggles on offense, with the team ranking as one of the worst in the nation. Several top players regressed from their previous form under his guidance. It's a stark contrast to the success Bieniemy enjoyed as the offensive coordinator for the Kansas City Chiefs in the NFL.

This situation serves as a reminder of the challenges coaches face when transitioning between the professional and college ranks. What works in the NFL doesn't always translate to the college game, and vice versa. It will be interesting to see where Bieniemy lands next and whether he returns to the NFL, where he had previously found success.

Speaking of potential coaching moves, let's discuss the buzz surrounding Bill Belichick. Reports have surfaced that Belichick has interviewed for the vacant University of North Carolina head coaching position. This is a surprising development, given that Belichick has never coached college football in his long and illustrious career.

Belichick left the New England Patriots in January after an incredible twenty four seasons in charge. During his tenure, he established himself as arguably the greatest coach in NFL history, winning six Super Bowls. The idea of him potentially transitioning to the college ranks is fascinating.

If Belichick were to take the North Carolina job, it would be a seismic shift in the college football landscape. His NFL pedigree and reputation would likely make him an instant recruiting draw. However, it's worth noting that the college game has changed significantly in recent years, with the introduction of Name, Image, and Likeness deals and the transfer portal. It would be interesting to see how Belichick adapts to these new challenges.

Turning our attention back to on-field matters, let's discuss the Philadelphia Eagles' upcoming matchup against the Carolina Panthers. The Eagles are coming off an impressive road win against the Baltimore Ravens and have now won eight straight games. However, they face a potential trap game against the three and nine Panthers.

One key matchup to watch in this game is the Eagles' run game against the Panthers' woeful run defense. Carolina is allowing an average of one hundred and sixty six point eight rushing yards per game, which puts them on pace to give up the twelfth-most rushing yards in a single season in NFL history. The Eagles, meanwhile, have the number one rushing offense in the NFL, averaging one hundred and eighty eight point nine rushing yards per game.

This mismatch could lead to a big day for Eagles running back Saquon Barkley. It's worth noting that four of the Eagles' five remaining opponents have bottom six run defenses. This favorable schedule could potentially put Barkley in the conversation for MVP and even give him a shot at breaking the single-season rushing record.

However, the Eagles will need to be wary of complacency. We've seen Philadelphia teams of the past blow games when they've been double-digit favorites. It will be up to the coaching staff to keep the players focused on the task at hand, which is to keep putting pressure on the Detroit Lions for the number one seed, a first-round bye, and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

As we wrap up today's episode, let's take a quick look at some early NFL draft projections for two thousand twenty five. While it's still very early in the process, some interesting trends are emerging. The Jacksonville Jaguars, currently holding the number one pick, are projected to select Travis Hunter, a cornerback and wide receiver from Colorado. Hunter's versatility could provide an immediate boost to both the Jaguars' secondary and their receiving corps.

The Las Vegas Raiders, picking second, are projected to select Shedeur Sanders, quarterback from Colorado. This pick would certainly generate buzz, given Sanders' high profile and the potential for his father, Deion Sanders, to potentially join him in Las Vegas.

Other notable projections include Cam Ward, quarterback from Miami, going to the New York Giants at number three, and Jalen Milroe, quarterback from Alabama, going to the Cleveland Browns at number eight. These early projections highlight the premium placed on finding franchise quarterbacks in the draft.

Of course, these projections are subject to change as we get closer to the draft. Player performances in bowl games and the NFL combine will certainly shake up these rankings. But it's always fascinating to get an early glimpse at how teams might approach the draft and address their needs for the future.

Thank you for listening today. We would kindly ask that you rate, review, share and subscribe to NFL Catch-Up. Remember we drop every Friday morning all year long across the major podcast platforms. You can find us on X at nfl underscore catchup. We're also available on YouTube and on the web at nflcatchup.com.